Hungarian euro: 2032 or 2033, and what it means

The introduction of the euro has been a recurring topic in Hungary for years, but this autumn two fresh statements provided a clearer picture of the possible timetable. According to an analysis published by Equilor Befektetési Zrt. on 24 September 2026, the country could replace the forint no earlier than 2033. At the same time, in early October, Zoltán Kurali, deputy governor of the Hungarian National Bank, also described 1 January 2032 as achievable. Below, we explain what lies behind the two scenarios, what conditions must be met, and what all this could mean for those planning their savings years ahead.

Two dates, one year apart

According to Növekedés.hu’s report, Equilor’s analysts see 2033 as the earliest realistic date for introducing the euro. Based on summaries by KMDSZ and 24per7, this would require joining the ERM II exchange rate mechanism by 2030 at the latest.

The central bank is working with a more optimistic timetable. According to reports published on 6 October 2026 by Portfolio and HVG, Zoltán Kurali considers a 1 January 2032 introduction possible, with ERM II entry in 2029 and a decision in 2031.

The two scenarios therefore do not contradict each other; rather, they show how uncertain the pace of meeting the conditions remains. In both cases, joining ERM II is the first unavoidable step, so its timing will be the most important signal of which timetable may become reality.

What is ERM II, and why does the timetable depend on it?

ERM II is the “waiting room” for the euro area: the currency of a country seeking to join is pegged to the euro, and the exchange rate must remain stable during this period. Under the rules, at least two years must be spent in the mechanism, but in practice this can be longer if meeting the other conditions is delayed.

The final decision on adopting the euro is based on the Maastricht criteria, and compliance with these is assessed in the European Central Bank’s regularly published convergence reports. The conditions include price stability, sustainable public finances (the level of the deficit and debt), long-term interest rates and exchange rate stability. At present, not all of these are equally difficult for Hungary to meet.

The main obstacle: the deficit and debt

According to Növekedés.hu’s report, Equilor sees the biggest barriers to entry as the public budget deficit and the high interest burden of government debt. Based on HVG’s article on the analysis, the extra revenue generated by economic growth alone will not be enough to reach the Maastricht deficit target; structural fiscal consolidation will also be needed.

Exactly what steps such an adjustment might involve remains an open question for now, even though this could determine whether ERM II accession comes in 2029 or 2030, or later.

According to Növekedés.hu’s summary, Equilor forecasts 2.5 per cent GDP growth for the next two years, public debt falling to 76.5 per cent, a base rate of 4 per cent, and a euro exchange-rate range of 360–370 forints. These are analytical forecasts, not guaranteed figures.

The central bank’s move: a lower inflation target

According to Portfolio’s report, from 2028 the MNB will cut its inflation target from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent specifically so that the price-stability condition required for euro adoption can be met. This signals that the central bank is also preparing for accession with its own tools.

A lower inflation target generally goes hand in hand with a lower interest-rate environment over the longer term, which may benefit borrowers but could bring more modest nominal returns for savers. When and to what extent this appears will depend on actual inflation trends; for the latest developments, our article on the August inflation data provides an overview.

The public supports it, but does not see the country as ready

According to reports by HVG and Világgazdaság, 80 per cent of the public supports the introduction of the euro, yet only 22 per cent considers the country prepared for it. The gap between the two figures clearly shows that many people see the common currency as desirable, but strong doubts remain about its practical implementation.

How can you plan with the 360–370 forint range?

According to Növekedés.hu and Money.hu, from the perspective of long-term savers the 360–370 forint euro exchange-rate range provides a more stable basis for planning. This may be particularly useful for those who expect euro-denominated expenses in the coming years, for example because of studies abroad, travel or liabilities payable in euros.

Some general points worth considering when planning:

• Work with a range, not a single figure. The forecast is a band, and the actual exchange rate may differ from it, so it is worth building a buffer into calculations.
• The euro is still years away. Whether we assume 2032 or 2033, the forint’s exchange-rate risk will remain until then, so goals involving foreign currency should still be planned with this in mind.
• The interest-rate environment may change. If rates fall, returns on deposits and government securities may also decline, so it is worth reviewing the maturities and composition of savings from time to time.
• The conversion rate is not yet known today. When the euro is introduced, savings held in forints will be converted at a fixed rate, but this will only be determined when the accession decision is made.

These are general considerations, not personalised financial advice. Before making a specific investment or savings decision, it is worth consulting an independent financial professional and taking into account your own circumstances, time horizon and risk tolerance.

What is worth watching in the coming years?

Whether 2032 or 2033 becomes the year of the Hungarian euro will depend mainly on the success of fiscal adjustment and the timing of ERM II accession. The first real signal, therefore, will be a concrete decision on entering the exchange-rate mechanism. Until then, the safest starting point for savers is to treat current forecasts as reference points and shape their plans flexibly, prepared for several scenarios.